Senior Analyst- Modelling Team

Contract: Permanent

Location: London or Newcastle

Salary: £53,000 in London and £48,000 in Newcastle

Introduction

Thank you for your interest in joining the National Audit Office as a Senior Analyst in our central Modelling Team. This pack will give you a better idea of who we are, what you’ll do when you join us, and what we offer. It also explains how to apply.

Our position is unique, and our work is extraordinarily influential. We are independent of government and the civil service and scrutinise public spending for Parliament. This means we work for, and for the good of, everyone in the country. We help society work better – supporting and enabling improvements in the way services are delivered right across the public sector. The recommendations from our work result in financial savings and positive changes in government to improve services and ensure value for money for the taxpayer.

For you, this means work that has a greater value, and offers a greater challenge. You’ll tackle complex projects that inform debates and influence some of the biggest decisions that government makes. You’ll collaborate with dedicated and talented people toward shared and important goals. And, by taking on new opportunities and challenges, you’ll build a rewarding and fascinating career – one that will allow you to make an impact that you, and the nation, can clearly see.

We currently have a vacancy for a Senior Analyst within our Modelling Team, part of our central Analysis team, to provide model assurance support to teams across the Financial Audit service line. If you like what you see and can meet our requirements, then we want to hear from you.

More about the NAO, including some of our recent work, is available on our website www.nao.org.uk

Purpose

The Analysis Hub works across the NAO, providing high quality and innovative analysis to create unique insights and enhance the scrutiny of public spending. Our aims are to drive innovation and knowledge in a number of analytical discipline areas, deploy our knowledge and develop capability.

The Modelling Team is the NAO’s expert team for auditing and generating insight from models. Formed of dedicated modelling, data science, statistics and economic experts, it works with over 30 financial audit and value for money (VFM) teams each year, testing and producing complex models which underpin the production of significant accounting estimates and operational decision making.

For example:

Financial audit: Estimates of significant assets and liabilities in Departments’ accounts are often underpinned by complex models. The Modelling Team collaborates with NAO financial audit teams to understand and scrutinise these models, produce audit evidence and support the development of the overall audit opinion. We also provide specialist feedback to clients with the intention of improving the way they produce and use these models.

Value for money: The Modelling Team also leverages our framework to review models, based on the findings from our financial modelling in government VFM study, and provides specialist advice and support to VFM teams to audit models used by government to plan and operate its business (for past examples see our work on Active travel in England, Renewable Heat Incentive, and test and trace). We also build financial and decision models to provide analysis and insight for VFM reports (for past examples see our work on maternity Services, jobcentre journey time model and managing flood risk). Also, we are currently carrying out an independent assessment of the modelling behind the NHS Long Term Workforce Plan.

We are looking to recruit a Senior Analyst to work in our modelling team. As a modelling lead you will play a key role in leading the audit of complex quantitative models; develop and apply innovative audit techniques; work to influence our clients; and drive your own development in specialist skills including the application of modelling, programming and data analytics techniques.

The impact you’ll make

Right from the start, you’ll contribute to work that matters. All our work helps hold government to account for the way it uses public money and helps to promote improvements in public service delivery. The scope of our impact is huge – from health to education to justice to overseas development to the BBC and Bank of England – and much more.

Our recommendations and reports on good practice help government improve public services, and our work in the last year had led to:

Positive financial impacts of £572 million in 2022-23;

£7 of positive financial impact for every pound spent in 2022-23; and

91% of recommendations to government were accepted or partially accepted.

Nationality Requirement:

UK Nationals

Nationals of Commonwealth countries who have the right to work in the UK

Nationals from the EU, EEA or Switzerland with (or eligible for) status under the European Union Settlement Scheme (EUSS)

How to Apply:

If you are interested in applying, you will need to submit your CV and complete the application form (links for both documents are below). Please do not submit any other documents at this stage as these will not be reviewed. Should the system request a covering letter please submit your completed application form.

Applicants who are successful at these stages we be invited to complete a technical exercise, and may be invited for final interview thereafter.

Please click on the following links to access the candidate pack and application form:

Candidate pack- https://bit.ly/3RO2eDS

Application form- https://bit.ly/472LPjg

The closing deadline for applications is 23:59pm on Tuesday 9 January 2024.

If you experience any issues during the application process, please contact Abu Sayeed Ahmed or Sharmia Ravichandran at the following email- [email protected]

Responsibilities

The main responsibilities of the role include:

Lead the audit of complex quantitative models (including, but not limited to those containing: machine learning algorithms, regression methods and microsimulation models) to support the delivery of our financial audit model assurance work programme.

Use software tools such as R and MS Excel to validate clients’ model methodology as well as develop new (and improving existing) quantitative models that can be used to challenge clients’ model selection.

Collaborate with Financial Audit teams to agree the scope of our participation, develop clear project plans and work manage colleagues in the modelling team (including quality assuring their outputs) to successfully deliver on our audit objectives.

Engage purposefully with clients to understand their selected model methodology, key assumptions and sensitivity analysis to collect audit evidence in support of our conclusions

Support the development and maintenance of the modelling team’s portfolio of model reproductions; including fine tuning machine learning algorithms, developing both univariate and multivariate sensitivity analysis, and making use of parallel processing when appropriate.

Identify where alternative forecasting methodologies can be applied to clients’ models and build independent auditor’s estimates when suitable; assessing the quality of the auditor’s estimate through examining model performance.

Support the modelling discipline to develop colleagues’ technical quantitative modelling and communication skills

Relationships and Accountability

You will work in our central Analysis Hub and deliver work to time and budget. Reporting directly to our Head of Modelling, you will work closely with other analytical specialists to support and develop others across the office.

Essential Abilities

It will be essential that you can demonstrate:

strong capability in R (including RShiny and RMarkdown) and MS Excel

experience of using analytical techniques (e.g. mathematics, statistics, operational research, economics, data science) to build quantitative models and/or deliver high quality quantitative analysis to challenging timescales

exceptional communication skills, both written and verbal; can explain complex model methodology in a way that is accessible to non-modellers

strong project management skills to include experience of scoping of projects, developing project plans and managing others

experience in engaging effectively with stakeholders to plan projects, deliver high quality products and provide results and advice, often to senior stakeholders

tactful negotiation skills; can demonstrate a willingness to challenge current practice to fully understand clients’ methodology selection and communicate persuasively when facing resistance

an interest in developing yourself and others; to include identifying skills gaps and opportunities to enhance performance

curiosity of the latest developments in modelling and how others use modelling to achieve their goals

Evidence of the following would strengthen your application:

experience of model audit

in depth knowledge of regression analysis or machine learning algorithms, evidenced by a robust portfolio of work

familiarity with SAS and/or DevOps

Desirable Attributes

In addition, we are looking for candidates with the following attributes:

is ambitious to deliver high performance and achieve successful business outcomes through self and others

actively builds and maintains a network of colleagues (both modellers and non-modellers) to support the delivery of our Financial Audit work programme

self-starter with ability to prioritise and deliver work to a high standard and exercise sound judgement in decision-making

good team player with the ability to build good relationships, solve problems pragmatically and display strong interpersonal skills

role models inclusive behaviours in line with the NAO values (we act with courage and integrity; we are inclusive and respectful; we are curious and seek to learn; we strive for excellence)

Education/work experience

A strong academic background with valid work experience, i.e:

A minimum of a 2:1 degree in a discipline with a substantial quantitative analytical component (e.g. mathematics, statistics, computer science, data analytics, social research methods, economics, management science/operations research or finance) and relevant experience working as an analyst